Tom Tabler
Professor and Extension Poultry Specialist

If you have been to the grocery store lately, you already know that eggs are expensive these days. During 2024, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs increased by 37 percent. Contrast that to the trajectory of overall food prices, which rose 2.5 percent in the past year. In addition, eggs increased $1.28/dozen (an increase of over 22 percent) during January 2025. Historically, eggs in the U.S. reached an all-time high of $7.09/dozen in January 2025 (Trading Economics, 2025).  Sadly, they will not get cheaper any time soon.  In fact, expect just the opposite. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) price outlook expects egg prices to increase 20.3 percent in 2025, compared to about 2.2 percent for overall food prices.

Eggs in the U.S. are expected to trade at $7.66/dozen by the end of the current quarter and, looking down the road, eggs are expected to trade at $9.67/dozen in 12 months’ time. The most common question that I’ve received since back before Christmas is “What’s going on with egg prices?” Although multiple factors are in play when it comes to the current high price of eggs, one dominates above all the others. One factor is inflation. Since 2023, the cost of practically everything has been going up for the American consumer. Another is the continuing supply chain issues plaguing the egg industry that are partially a holdover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The table egg industry continues to struggle to find workers and suffers from a labor shortage, which somewhat hampers production. However, the main factor, by far, driving egg prices higher is the ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak that has led to the loss of millions of table egg laying hens that we rely on for our egg supply from both conventional caged and cage-free laying systems. 

As of February 5, 2025, since the start of the current HPAI outbreak on February 8, 2022, 153.87 million birds have been affected. HPAI has been detected in a total of 1,513 flocks in all 50 states. Of those, 710 have been commercial flocks, and 803 have been backyard flocks. During December 2024, 18.25 million birds were lost. In January 2025, losses were even greater, when 23.3 million birds were lost. Many of these lost birds were table egg layers during the holiday baking season, which added to the strain on the egg supply. Table egg operations are often large one to five million-bird complexes. Currently, if one bird on the complex tests positive for HPAI, USDA policy requires every bird on the complex be euthanized to prevent the disease from spreading to nearby farms. In recent months, numerous HPAI outbreaks on large table egg complexes have seriously reduced the number of table egg layers still in production, creating a shortage of eggs and driving up egg prices.

Lost laying hens can be replaced, and farmers and egg companies that provide table eggs to the grocery stores are working to do that as quickly as possible, but it can’t be done overnight. It takes three weeks for a fertile egg to hatch into a baby chick. It then takes roughly 20-22 weeks for that chick to grow up into an adult hen and become sexually mature and start laying eggs. In addition, she doesn’t start laying Grade A large eggs when she first starts laying. Her first eggs are small, and over the next few weeks, she gradually works up to laying large eggs. So, it takes roughly six months to raise a table egg layer and bring her into production. Therefore, table egg layers lost in January 2025 can’t be replaced before July or August 2025 at the earliest. As a result, expect higher egg prices throughout the remainder of 2025 and perhaps longer. There will be no quick fix to the current high egg price dilemma. Also, keep in mind that there is no end in sight to the current HPAI outbreak and losses of table egg layers, turkeys, broilers, and backyard poultry flocks will likely continue.

Work on a vaccine for HPAI continues but currently no vaccine is available in the U.S. While export questions would have to be resolved before vaccine use could become a reality should vaccination become a possibility, this would be more of an issue for broiler meat export than for export of table eggs. In addition, table egg layers and turkeys have been much more affected by HPAI than broiler chickens. Roughly 33 million birds were affected in December and January alone, with a number of positive detections on large table egg complexes in January reducing the conventional egg-laying flock by an additional 3.7 percent, putting increased pressure on already soaring egg prices.

The staggering laying flock losses in recent months have prompted grocery stores in some parts of the country to begin to limit consumer egg purchases in order to preserve supply and prevent panic-buying. In addition, grocery stores often use eggs as promotional items to pull shoppers into the stores. However, many stores are now pricing eggs at record or near record highs to limit demand and avoid empty egg cases. Earlier this week, high egg prices forced the Georgia-based Waffle House restaurant chain to temporarily add a 50-cent surcharge per egg to customer orders. According to its website, Waffle House serves 272 million eggs per year, making eggs the chain’s most-ordered item, surpassing hash browns (153 million) and even waffles (124 million).

Expect egg prices to remain high throughout 2025 and possibly longer as the country continues to deal with the H5N1 outbreak. While several factors are in play affecting high egg prices, by far, the greatest one is the ongoing avian influenza outbreak that continues to decimate poultry flocks across the country, with table egg laying flocks being hit especially hard. Farmers and table egg companies are working to replace lost flocks as quickly as possible, but it is a process that takes time. Replacement birds must be hatched and raised for up to six months before they can begin laying eggs. As long as we continue to lose laying flocks to HPAI on a regular basis, we will continue to be playing catch up with replacement flocks and egg prices will remain high. Biosecurity remains our best defense against avian influenza. Isolation….Traffic Control….Sanitation….practice these steps at each and every chicken house each and every time you visit your flock.

References

• Trading Economics. 2025. Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us. Accessed: February 5, 2025.
• USDA. 2025. Food price outlook. Available at: Food Price Outlook – Summary Findings | Economic Research Service. Accessed: February 5, 2025.